In the past, it was often said that Bitcoin (BTC) moves the entire crypto and blockchain industry. Is this still the case?
The past few months have seen Bitcoin hitting high-water marks including all-time high long-term holder rates and local highs in hash rate difficulty adjustment — yet Bitcoin is still in bearish conditions as we head into Q4 of 2022.
Not all areas of the blockchain industry can boast such signals of strength, such as venture capital (VC), which brought in $840,000 in October, down 48.6% from the previous month. Likewise, there has been a continued drop in GameFi nonfungible token sales, even with 10% more active gamers in October than in September.
All the while, regulation continues to be a looming threat from entities like the United States Securities and Exchange Commission, which is now looking into the possibility that Ether (ETH) is a security given that 46.65% of Ethereum nodes are in the United States.
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Another positive Bitcoin signal
Bitcoin is trading above its 50-day moving average (MA), with the 100-day MA acting as resistance and the moving average convergence/divergence (MACD) histogram signaling a bullish trend. On-chain data and historically accurate metrics suggest a bottom may be near. Furthermore, the MVRV-Z score has been in the green zone since late June, suggesting Bitcoin is bottoming out.
Post-Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) volatility was brief on Nov. 2, with the trading range consolidating around the $20,000 level. Apart from the FOMC, volatility could come in the wake of the U.S. midterm elections and Q3 earnings from crypto behemoths MicroStrategy, Coinbase, Block and Robinhood, all of which occur in November.
Bitcoin’s fundamentals are still strong, and the asset that started it all for crypto will likely help keep the industry ultimately on course through the rest of the bear market, even though it may face some volatility along the way. But thankfully, 1 BTC continues to equal 1 BTC.
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