The cryptocurrency market has undergone a substantial downturn, with many of the top 100 cryptocurrencies experiencing sharp price drops. Bitcoin, the leading digital asset, hit a low of $61,600 on Tuesday.
However, industry experts suggest a potential rebound to higher highs may be on the horizon as the highly anticipated Halving event draws near.
Adrian Zduńczyk, a crypto trader and technical analyst, provides valuable insights into the market dynamics, highlighting key factors such as bull market indicators, ETFs, and the imminent Halving event.
Mixed Signals For BTC
According to Zduńczyk’s analysis, the market exhibits bullish signs, with the 200-week and 50-week moving averages (MAs) at $33,700 and $39,900, respectively.
The Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) ratio is 0.55, indicating a favorable trading environment. Additionally, the 7-week correlation with the S&P 500 (SPX) remains firm at 0.71.
In terms of daily trends, Zduńczyk notes that Bitcoin is currently in a choppy range between $59,000 and $74,000, with the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) rising at $46,600 and the 200-day Bitcoin Production Cost (BPRO) rising at $57,700.
However, the analyst notes that the medium-term momentum is declining, and the 50-day Average True Range (ATR) volatility has increased to $3270. This suggests that Bitcoin’s overall price trend is losing strength or momentum in the medium-term timeframe.
Bitcoin Aims For $86,500
Zduńczyk highlights the market sentiment. The Fear & Greed Index is at 65, indicating a state of greed among market participants. The analyst notes that the current phase of the market cycle is characterized by belief.
Moreover, miners are still profitable at prices above $41,800, and as mining difficulty rises post-Halving, a price spike is expected.
Notably, previous Halving events have triggered substantial price rallies, with Bitcoin experiencing significant gains of 90X, 30X, and 7X. Importantly, Bitcoin has never returned to Halving prices after these rallies.
Examining seasonality trends, the monthly opening price for April stands at $71,000, suggesting a positive outlook for the month. The average gain for April is estimated at 21.95%, implying an end-of-month target of $86,500, according to Zduńczyk.
Moreover, the period from April 16 to 30 has historically seen average gains of 14.69%, further reinforcing positive expectations and further price gains for BTC during the…
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