The
possibility of Bitcoin reaching the coveted $1 million milestone hinges
primarily on one crucial factor – the establishment of a U.S. government
strategic Bitcoin reserve1. This assessment comes from Jeff Park, Head of Alpha
Strategies at Bitwise Asset Management, who estimates the probability of such
an initiative at less than 10% for 202512.
When Will Bitcoin Hit $1
Million? Park Has the Answer
According
to Park’s latest prediction, there is a possibility that Bitcoin’s price will
hit $1 million in 2025. However, the chances are only around 10%. Why this
specific probability? He assigns the same likelihood to the potential
establishment of a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve in the United States.
The idea of a federal Bitcoin Strategic Reserve happening in 2025 is less than a 10% chance event.
That’s the only math in which Bitcoin can hit $1mm+ in 2025 when it happens.
— Jeff Park (@dgt10011) December 26, 2024
“The
idea of a federal Bitcoin Strategic Reserve happening in 2025 is less than a
10% chance event,” Park commented on X (formerly Twitter). “That’s
the only math in which Bitcoin can hit $1mm+ in 2025 when it happens.”
In a
separate post on X, he demonstrated his analysis of the probability for this
scenario to materialize.
Here is a simple illustration of how probability math works–
Bottom right looks most probable to me, ie. 2.5% chance. pic.twitter.com/KCsqHGnFMu
— Jeff Park (@dgt10011) December 26, 2024
Bitcoin Market Dynamics
and Strategic Reserve Impact
The
cryptocurrency market has demonstrated remarkable resilience, with Bitcoin
currently trading around $96,000. Park’s analysis suggests that a federal
Bitcoin reserve represents the only mathematical pathway for Bitcoin to surpass
the $1 million threshold in 2025.
Legislative Framework
Senator
Cynthia Lummis has already laid groundwork for such an initiative, introducing
draft legislation that would mandate the US Treasury to acquire 1 billion
Bitcoins over five years. This ambitious proposal has sparked intense debate
within both political and financial circles.
Market Sentiment
While Park
maintains a conservative outlook on the probability of a strategic reserve,
market sentiment appears more optimistic. Polymarket participants currently
price the likelihood of a US Bitcoin reserve at 31% for 2025.
Bitcoin Technical Analysis
On Friday,
December 27, 2024, Bitcoin is trading at $96,252 on Binance, with the price
continuing to move within the same November-December consolidation range. In…
