In a thread on X (formerly Twitter), Raoul Pal, a renowned trading guru and the founder/CEO of Global Macro Investor and Real Vision, has illuminated the crypto community about the advent of what he terms as the “Macro/Crypto Summer.” This period, according to Pal, is not just a fleeting season but a significant phase in the financial and cryptocurrency markets, deeply rooted in the cyclical nature of the global economy.
Why The Macro/Crypto Summer Matters
Pal elaborates on the concept of the “Macro Summer,” explaining it as a pivotal phase in “The Everything Code” cycle, closely following the Financial Conditions Index, which historically precedes the cycle by approximately ten months. The ISM (Institute for Supply Management) index, a key indicator of economic health, often bottoms out during this period, marking the start of GDP growth.
Pal’s thesis draws attention to the “near-perfect 3 1/2 year cyclicality” in the ISM business cycle, propelled by liquidity dynamics and the debt refinancing cycle at its core. He underscores the significance of liquidity: “And that is driven by liquidity, which bottomed at the end of 2022… macro summer and fall are all about liquidity rising and is a core part of The Everything Code thesis.”
This influx of liquidity is crucial for tech stocks, which historically thrive during these phases. Yet, it’s Bitcoin and, more broadly, the cryptocurrency market that exhibit the most dramatic responses. Pal presents staggering growth figures from past Macro Summer and Fall seasons to underscore his point:
- Bitcoin: Saw increases of “2012/2013: +146x, 2016/2017: +30x, 2020/2021: +8x…”
- Ethereum: As an altcoin during the 2016/2017 and 2020/2021 cycles, it achieved “2016/2017: +1,770x, 2020/2021: +41x.”
- Altcoins (excluding ETH): Witnessed an aggregate market cap rise of “+24x” in the last cycle.
“Wild! When we just look at Altcoins ex-ETH (we only have shorter data for the last cycle), the entire market cap rose +24x! And that includes thousands of worthless tokens that didn’t rise, so I’m not just cherry-picking winners here,” Pal remarked.
DOGE, a popular meme coin, is mentioned by the expert as another prime example of the “power of Crypto Summer and Fall,” with its value experiencing significant…
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