US Stocks Set To Gain For 7th Session On Small-Caps Strength, But Traders Wary Of Volatility From ‘Quadruple Witching’

Stocks are poised for a seventh consecutive session of gains on Friday, driven by the traditional year-end Santa Claus rally. As the market eyes potential robust gains in the remaining nine sessions of the year, the upcoming quadruple witching session introduces an element of volatility, given the simultaneous expiration of index futures, index options, stock options, and single stock futures.

Traders will closely monitor economic data on manufacturing activity and industrial production to validate the Federal Reserve’s signaled soft-landing after its December meeting.

Cues From Thursday’s Session:

Traders exhibited optimism about the economy avoiding a hard landing. The major averages opened higher, fueled by stronger-than-expected retail sales growth reported by the Commerce Department. Weekly jobless claims were roughly in line with expectations. Although the averages dipped below the flat line in the late afternoon, they recovered and closed moderately higher.

Energy stocks led the advance, and interest rate-sensitive sectors, including real estate, financials, industrials, and consumer discretionary stocks, also posted gains. Conversely, defensive utility stocks experienced a notable retreat. 

US Index Performance On Thursday

Analyst Color:

Looking ahead into 2024, the S&P 500 Index will likely end the year between 4,700 and 4,800, says Commonwealth Financial Network, a Waltham, Massachusetts-based financial advisor. S&P 500 earnings will likely grow in the mid-single-digit range in the new year, the firm said.

“Based on valuations, the more attractive asset classes are those that have underperformed over the last few years: value, small-cap, and international,” the firm said. It, however, cautioned of clouds on the fundamental horizon for these stocks.

“So, while large-cap growth is more expensive compared with other asset classes and historical valuations, we believe it has a more solid foundation, especially when you factor in the outlook for artificial intelligence, which is revolutionizing the technology sector,” it added.

Fund Strat’s Tom Lee,…