The US Presidential election is only a day away. Although current Vice President Kamala Harris started on the back foot in her race against former President Donald Trump, her odds on Polymarket have narrowed significantly recently.
Harris Leads Polls, but Trump Is Bettors’ Favourite
The odds between Harris and Trump have always been narrow in various election polls. In the New York Times poll, Harris is even ahead of Trump, though the lead is very marginal—only 1 percentage point. A similar sentiment can be seen across other US election polls.
However, in the betting markets, where real money is involved, things are different. Polymarket, the largest blockchain-based betting market, keeps Trump ahead of Harris. The gap between them widened to 66.6:33.4 in favour of Trump last week but pushed Harris up over the weekend, narrowing the gap to 56:42, still in Trump’s favour.
Kamala Harris’ odds continue to rise.🟥 Trump • 54.8% chance🟦 Harris • 45.1% chance1 day to go. pic.twitter.com/9RVNdokbyH
— Polymarket (@Polymarket) November 3, 2024
Although Polymarket is the largest election betting market, with a volume of more than $2.8 billion, it is an offshore platform. Interestingly, political betting is also available in the US. Kalshi and Interactive Brokers-owned ForecastEx are the top two platforms, but their volumes remain significantly lower than their crypto counterpart.
The bettors on Kalshi are giving Trump a 52 percent odd against 48 percent for Harris on a market of over $185.6 million.
However, ForecastEx is a bit different as it has two separate markets for Harris’s and Trump’s victories. Only 49 percent of the ForecastEx bettors bought the contract favouring Harris’s win, while 54 percent of the bettors favoured a Trump victory. The market betting on Harris’s victory has over $80.3 million in open interest, while the one for Trump’s victory has over $74.1 million.
The flip. Trump regains his lead on Kalshi. pic.twitter.com/drZWPUrgdT
— Kalshi (@Kalshi) November 4, 2024
The Legal Political Betting Market in the US
Notably, the onshore dollar-based US elections prediction markets received a setback in opening political markets, as the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) blocked Kalshi over concerns regarding gaming and other activities that were not in the public’s interest. However, Kalshi sued the agency, and the court sided with it; even an appeals court favoured the prediction market.
“Ensuring the integrity of…
