For many months, former President Donald Trump has been the frontrunner to secure the nomination for the Republican party in the 2024 presidential election.
With several candidates dropping out of the race, a prediction market shows strong bets on Trump convincingly winning the New Hampshire Republican primary.
What Happened: Trump won the Iowa caucus with 51% of the vote, earning 20 delegates in the Republican primary race. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis ranked second with 21.2% of the vote, earning nine delegates. Nikki Haley ranked third with 19.1% of the vote and eight delegates.
Since the results of Iowa, Republican candidates DeSantis and Vivek Ramaswamy have dropped out of the race, making it a two-candidate race between Trump and Haley. Ramaswamy ranked a distant fourth place in Iowa. Both Ramaswamy and DeSantis have pledged support to Trump since dropping out.
While many people in the U.S. can’t bet on the outcome of the 2024 election or upcoming state primaries, a cryptocurrency prediction market has odds and bets ready to go.
Calling itself the world’s largest prediction market, Polymarket offers betting on items in categories such as politics, Middle East, sports, cryptocurrency, pop culture, business and science. On Polymarket, users deposit to Polygon (CRYPTO: MATIC) using USDC (CRYPTO: USDC) and can deposit with Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH).
On the platform, bettors can pick who they think will win the Republican race in New Hampshire on Tuesday, Jan. 23. Trump is currently listed with a 98% chance to win the state’s primary on Tuesday. The platform offers Trump at 98 cents for yes, with a winning bet cashing out at $1.
Haley is listed at 1.9 cents, which means if she pulls the upset, bettors would see a huge payday at the $1 cash out.
The betting for the New Hampshire main race has attracted over $4 million in wagers.
Another bet available on the site for New Hampshire is Trump’s winning margin in the state, which comes after he won Iowa by nearly 30 percentage points. Betting for the margin of victory stands at over $800,000 at the time of writing.
The current margin bets are as follows with how much the yes and no markets trade at.
>15% margin: 72 cents yes, 29 cents no
12.5% to 15%: 12 cents yes, 91 cents no
10.0% to 12.5%: 8 cents yes, 93 cents no
7.5% to 10.0%: 5 cents yes, 96…
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