Bitcoin’s quiet rally has captured the attention of Wall Street and beyond, but some voices from OG Bitcoiners like American HODL are predicting that what we’ve witnessed so far is just the calm before an explosive storm.
The Bitcoin treasury bubble thesis
The Bitcoin treasury bubble thesis is that, within just a few years, a tidal wave of corporate, institutional, and possibly sovereign capital totaling as much as $11 trillion could flood into Bitcoin. Some projections suggest that true mania may not hit until 2026 or beyond, potentially sending the price as high as $1 million per coin.
Swan Bitcoin exchange unpacked this thesis, examining the signals, mechanics, and real-world examples supporting the case for a Bitcoin treasury bubble that could rival the wildest days of the dot-com boom. Let’s check it out.
A historic build-up: From $2.4T asset to corporate standard
This month, Bitcoin marked a new all-time high above $120,000, pushing its market cap to $2.4 trillion, trailing only behind Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, and gold.
Yet, this move has come with little public awareness or euphoria. The price has stair-stepped higher in a quiet fashion, led not by retail speculation but by deliberate, low-profile corporate and institutional buying. As Swan pointed out:
“This is the least euphoric bull market we’ve ever seen… and that’s bullish.”
Public companies ranging from Strategy to Metaplanet, GameStop to Trump Media are accumulating Bitcoin on their balance sheets, and more novel models, such as those pioneered by Strive Asset Management, see companies converting cash reserves to Bitcoin, not for speculation but as an inflation hedge and long-term holding.
Weakening dollar, diminished safe havens
JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon recently warned that if the U.S. can’t rein in ballooning debt, America might lose its stance as the world’s reserve asset. He said:
“I just don’t know if it’s going to be a crisis in six months or six years, and I’m hoping that we change both the trajectory of the debt and the ability of market makers to make markets. Unfortunately, it may be that we need that to wake us up.”
As of fiscal year 2025, U.S. debt interest payments are projected to reach $952 billion, and as the dollar loses luster, Bitcoin’s narrative as “digital gold” and a reserve asset strengthens.
BlackRock CEO Larry Fink echoed Dimon’s concerns, saying:
“If the U.S. doesn’t get its debt under control, if deficits keep ballooning,…
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