StanChart exec predicts $200K Bitcoin by 2025-end as demand continues to outpace supply

Standard Chartered head of crypto research Geoffrey Kendrick predicts Bitcoin will continue to rally over the coming 24 months to culminate in a $200,000 price per coin by the end of 2025.

Kendrick made the statement during a CNBC interview on Feb. 29. He said that macro and fundamental indicators all point to a sustained rally for the flagship crypto.

Standard Chartered has previously made similar predictions before the spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) were approved. At the time, the lender wrote that their approval was critical for Bitcoin to climb to $200,000.

New all-time high before halving

Kendrick said the heightened demand for Bitcoin will likely cause the flagship crypto to hit a new all-time high before the halving, which is less than two months away. He also predicted that Bitcoin will hit $100,000 by the end of this year as the halving reduces supply even further.

The halving event, which cuts the reward for mining new bitcoins in half, is anticipated to reduce the inflation rate of Bitcoin from about 1.7% to approximately 0.8%. Mining rewards per block will fall to 3.125 from the current 6.25.

This will result in the daily supply of Bitcoin falling to 450 BTC from 900 BTC. Historically, the 50% reduction in new supply has been a major catalyst for price increases in previous cycles.

Another notable driver behind the bullish outlook is the substantial inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs launched at the start of 2024.

ETFs driving demand

Kendrick highlighted that new Bitcoin ETFs have seen significant inflows of $14 billion, with a net inflow, excluding Grayscale’s outflows, of about $6 billion. This equates to approximately 110,000 new Bitcoins being held, significantly boosting the market.

The Newborn Nine ETFs are soaking up Bitcoin at an average rate of 10,000 BTC per day, while only 900 BTC are produced daily — meaning demand is already 10x higher than the supply.

Kendrick also pointed to broader market conditions and potential shifts in Federal Reserve policies as supportive backdrops for Bitcoin’s ascent. With expectations of Fed rate cuts by mid-year, the easing monetary policy may favor risk assets, including crypto.

Additionally, he said that the overall growth narrative, buoyed by optimistic stock market trends, combined with the direct impacts of ETF inflows and the halving event, creates a compelling case for Bitcoin’s upward trajectory.