Quantitative analyst PlanB is mapping out his Bitcoin forecast for the next three years.
In a new video, the analyst updates BTC’s stock-to-flow ratio, which is typically used to forecast the future price of scarce commodities.
The ratio is essentially calculated by dividing the amount of BTC in circulation by the amount of Bitcoin mined per year.
PlanB has maintained two stock-to-flow models with slightly different variations, and says both models have remained intact.
He points to Bitcoin’s coming halving, which will reduce the amount of new supply entering the market in about a year, as the key catalyst that will spark an explosive BTC bull run.
PlanB says both of his stock-to-flow models show BTC’s next top will likely be in the $100,000 to $1,000,000 range.
“My forward guidance for the next three years is that the 2024 halving is coming… and the halving increases scarcity [and] pumps the Bitcoin price, just like it did last three halvings.
That yellow square is where it’s all about because those are the 2025 ranges that I gave.
And I said it will be higher than $100,000, which is the bottom end of the bandwidth. But in fact, I guess it will be between $100,000 and $1 million. And the stock-to-flow model is indicating $500,000.”
I know a lot of people don’t like the range estimates. They think it’s too wide and it’s unusable, the model is not valid, etc. But I much prefer the wide range, which is an indication of wide volatility, than a point estimate that pretends to be accurate.”
In the short-term, PlanB says key metric he’s now watching is Bitcoin’s 200-week moving average.
BTC poked above the moving average last week, but has since crept back below it.
Historically, long-term Bitcoin bull runs have triggered after BTC crosses above the line.
BTC > Realized price but when BTC > 200WMA? pic.twitter.com/2cO66y2yW1
— PlanB (@100trillionUSD) February 19, 2023
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