Bitcoin shed over 15% in the last 24 hours to around $21k and the whole crypto market sank below $1 trillion on Monday. Whether this gloomy start of the week will be followed by even more downside or some relief, could depend on next week’s meeting of the US Federal Reserve (FED).
Related Reading | Crypto Markets Lose $100 Billion As Bitcoin Drops Below $26K – More Pain Ahead?
Dovish Or Hawkish?
The US is seeing the largest year-on-year increase of the Consumer Price Index since December 1981. Inflation has not been “flattening out” as Fed Chair Jerome Powell expected in May.
Many analysts think this calls for a hawkish Fed and have predicted the next interest raise hike to be higher than previously announced. But others think that the Fed is not likely to surprise investors with a higher hike, so a hawkish scenario is still doubtful.
Nevertheless, the fear of recession is here and so is the bear market.
JPMorgan Chase & Co. strategist Marko Kolanovic explained in a note shared by Bloomberg why the next move could remain dovish:
“Friday’s strong CPI print that led to a surge in yields, along with the sell-off in crypto over the weekend, are weighing on investor sentiment and driving the market lower… However, we believe rates market repricing went too far and the Fed will surprise dovishly relative to what is now priced into the curve.”
But JPMorgan economist Michael Feroli thinks the opposite and expects a 75bps increase.
Meanwhile, Guy LeBas explained the mechanics of what happens at an FOMC meeting, stating that “Most of the time there are two realistic choices–“A” and “B”–but in times of extraordinary change or volatility, there are sometimes more. Incidentally, archived teal books are available here for the curious.”
“I am willing to bet that Option A is a 50bps rate hike with hawkish guidance for a faster pace of hikes thereafter. Option B is a 75bps hike with neutral guidance. Option C, if it’s serious, probably includes a faster pace of balance sheet runoff.”
LeBas took into account a WSJ article that also claimed the “troubling inflation reports” could lead to a surprise 75bps interest rate hike by the Fed.
The WSJ article quotes “Two consumer surveys have also shown households’ expectations of future inflation have increased in recent days,” previous statements by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, and the analysis of…
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