Popular quant analyst PlanB is doubling down on his prediction that Bitcoin (BTC) will surge to an astronomical value in the current bull market cycle.
In a video update, the pseudonymous analyst tells his 188,000 YouTube subscribers that his stock-to-flow (S2F) model indicates Bitcoin may soon soar anywhere between $250,000 and $1 million.
His stock-to-flow (S2F) model, which was traditionally used for traditional commodities before he adapted it to Bitcoin, predicts the performance of an asset based on the idea that price increases as the asset becomes more scarce.
Historically, PlanB’s S2F model has forecasted the beginning of strong bull runs soon after the halving, when miners’ rewards are cut in half.
“Right now we have the 2024 halving. I expect the same will happen this time. Obviously, there is a lag between the jump in model value and the market that has to adjust the prices over time. And, of course, there’s inertia in the markets…
And of course, again, don’t look at the exact number. The number [after the 2020 halving] was $50,000 and it turned out to be on average $34,000, which is okay. It’s not spot on. It’s not precise at all. But if you take a margin of say two times the model value, $500,000 two times is $1 million, and you divide it by two, it’s $250,000, in that area that’s where I expect the average of this four-year period to end.”
The analyst also notes his stock-to-flow model is predicting a higher cycle peak for BTC than many other analysts’ models.
“And mind you that is a lot higher than most other models in the space, because there’s a lot of models that think we will have an even lower bull market than the last one, and that we will top out anywhere between $200,000 and $300,000 – so not the average, but the top – and then fall back to below $100,000 again in the later years.”
Bitcoin is trading for $95,371 at time of writing, down 2.1% in the last 24 hours.
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