Bitcoin’s price retracement from its new all-time high of $108,353 on Tuesday to around $96,000 (a -11.5% pullback) has ignited intense speculation about whether the current bull cycle is nearing its peak. To address growing uncertainty, Rafael Schultze-Kraft, co-founder of on-chain analytics provider Glassnode, released a thread on X detailing 18 on-chain metrics and models. “Where is the Bitcoin TOP?” Schultze-Kraft asked, before laying out his detailed analysis.
Has Bitcoin Reached Its Cycle Top?
1/ MVRV Ratio: A longstanding measure of unrealized profitability, the MVRV ratio compares market value to realized value. Historically, readings above 7 signaled overheated conditions. “Currently hovering around 3 – room to grow,” Schultze-Kraft noted. This suggests that, in terms of aggregate unrealized profit, the market is not yet at levels that have previously coincided with macro tops.
2/ MVRV Pricing Bands: These bands are derived from the number of days MVRV has spent at extreme levels. The top band (3.2) has been exceeded for only about 6% of trading days historically. Today, this top band corresponds to a price of $127,000. Given that Bitcoin sits at around $98,000, the market has not yet reached a zone that historically marked top formations.
3/ Long-Term Holder Profitability (Relative Unrealized Profit & LTH-NUPL): Long-term holders (LTHs) are considered more stable market participants. Their Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) metric is currently at 0.75, entering what Schultze-Kraft terms the “euphoria zone.” He remarked that in the 2021 cycle, Bitcoin ran another ~3x after hitting similar levels (though he clarified he is not necessarily expecting a repetition). Historical top formations often saw LTH-NUPL readings above 0.9. Thus, while the metric is elevated, it has not yet reached previous cycle extremes.
Notably, Schultze-Kraft admitted his observations may be conservative because the 2021 cycle peaked at somewhat lower profitability values than prior cycles. “I would’ve expected these profitability metrics to reach slightly higher levels,” he explained. This may signal diminishing peaks over successive cycles. Investors should be aware that historical extremes may become less pronounced over time.
4/ Yearly Realized Profit/Loss Ratio: This metric measures the total realized profits relative…
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