Is Bitcoin’s Bull Market Ending? Onchain Data Says Yes

Key takeaways:

• BTC’s 700% rally from $15,500 to $124,500 suggests a market top in 2 to 3 months, based on past cycles.

• Bitcoin supply in profit has been elevated for 273 days, signaling a potential cycle peak soon. 

• Bitcoin risks dropping into the $90,000-$100,000 range if the psychological support at $110,000 is lost.

Bitcoin (BTC) is struggling to reclaim $114,000 on Thursday, as a convergence of onchain metrics signals waning bullish momentum and a classic setup for a market late in its cycle. 

The Bitcoin market is nearing a cycle top

Bitcoin has had an incredible performance over the last three years, rising as much as 700% to an all-time high of $124,500 last week from a cycle low of $15,500 reached in November 2022.

When compared with past cycles, this performance suggests that BTC price is roughly two to three months away from the cycle top, according to market intelligence firm Glassnode. 

Related: Bitcoin analysts point to ‘manipulation’ as BTC price falls to 17-day low

In its latest Week On-chain report, Glassnode said:

“In both the 2015–2018 and 2018–2022 cycles, the all-time highs were reached roughly 2–3 months beyond where we are in the current cycle, by relative timing.”

As of Aug. 21, approximately 91% of all Bitcoin were in profit, and have remained above the +1 standard deviation band for more than 273 days in the current cycle, as shown in the chart below. This makes it the second-longest on record, behind the 2015–2018 cycle at 335 days. 

This implies that the present cycle has delivered a comparable duration to that which has preceded cycle tops in prior cycles. 

When considered against the backdrop of the waves of onchain profit-taking over the past two years, the data reveals a similarity to previous cycle tops 

Analyzing the cumulative profit realized (in BTC terms) by long-term holders (LTHs) — investors who have held Bitcoin for at least 155 days — from the point of reaching a new cycle all-time high, until the final peak of the cycle, revealed that LTHs have realized more profit than in prior cycles. 

Such heightened levels of profit-taking by LTHs, comparable to past euphoric phases, add “another dimension through the lens of sell-side pressure,” Glassnode explained, adding:

“Taken together, these signals reinforce the view that the current cycle is firmly in its historically…