Is a $10K ETH Christmas rally now base-case? As Ethereum ETFs pull in $4 Billion in 2 weeks

Spot Ethereum ETFs have drawn more than $4 billion in net inflows over a two-week streak ending Tuesday, including $533.9 million added yesterday alone.

That run pushed total assets across all eight U.S. funds to $19.85 billion, per SoSoValue. The streak began on July 3 and has yet to break, placing Ethereum far ahead in proportional supply absorption.

BlackRock’s ETHA product led the surge, capturing $426.2 million on Tuesday and managing $9.26 billion in AUM. The inflow pace follows an earlier single-day record of $726.7 million logged on July 16. Ethereum ETF assets now represent over 4% of the asset’s total circulating supply, a level reached in just under three weeks of live trading.

Bitcoin ETFs, by comparison, saw $67.9 million in outflows on the same day, continuing a two-week reversal of flows between the two assets. Per CoinShares, ETH products gathered $990 million over the week ending July 14, equal to around 20% of their existing assets. That relative growth outpaced Bitcoin’s $2.7 billion intake, which accounted for 9.8% of its ETF base.

Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan estimates that demand from Ethereum ETFs and institutional balance sheets could amount to $20 billion over the next year, equating to more than 5.3 million ETH. With post-Merge issuance projected at just 0.8 million ETH annually, Hougan describes a potential seven-to-one imbalance between buyers and available new coins. The shift arrives as ETH’s net inflation rate remains relatively flat, with staking and long-term custody constraining secondary market supply.

Derivatives markets appear to be adjusting to the same direction. On Deribit, $4,000 and $6,000 call options held more than $931 million in combined open interest. Data also shows that Dec-26-25 $10k calls command $120 million in open interest, up 60 % in July and ranking fifth among ETH strikes.

At a mid-market premium, the contract prices a roughly 15 % probability that ether tops $10,000 by Christmas, lofty but not implausible…