Bitcoin (BTC) is set for a potential breakout as increasing institutional investment, growing miner holdings, and rising exchange-traded product (ETP) flows signal mounting demand, according to VanEck’s latest Bitcoin ChainCheck report.
The report also highlighted that the growing influence of institutional adoption in the Bitcoin market has strengthened the correlation between ETP flows and BTC price.
ETP correlation
Data from the report showed that weekly net inflows into US Bitcoin ETPs reached $19.4 billion by mid-October, with institutional inflows driving much of the price discovery process.
The correlation between weekly ETP inflows and Bitcoin returns was notably strong, with an R² value of 0.3422. This indicates that institutional money is increasingly leading rather than following Bitcoin’s price movements. The R² value is an indicator commonly used to determine how a model fits data and predicts future outcomes.
VanEck head of digital assets research Mathew Sigel said:
“Institutional participation, through these investment vehicles, is having a clear impact on price, reinforcing Bitcoin’s position as a key asset in the global financial system.”
The report also found that daily ETP flows have shown modest predictive power for Bitcoin price changes in after-hours trading, further underlining the influence of institutional inflows.
VanEck’s analysis revealed that during specific periods from July to September, the relationship between ETP flows and Bitcoin returns strengthened, demonstrating how US market momentum is spilling over into the 24/7 global crypto markets.
Macro-hedge
VanEck stated that Bitcoin is increasingly being recognized as a “macro-hedge” against economic instability and market volatility. The report pointed to Bitcoin’s growing appeal among institutional investors seeking to protect their portfolios from inflation, currency devaluation, and geopolitical uncertainty.
Many see Bitcoin as a hedge against traditional financial market fluctuations, similar to gold, but with added benefits like liquidity and digital accessibility. Recent trends in miner activity and corporate treasury strategies have reinforced this narrative.
The report noted that US-listed miners added 2% to their Bitcoin treasuries in September, following an 11% surge in August. This growing accumulation of BTC, coupled with an 8% rise in corporate treasury investments, demonstrates robust institutional confidence in Bitcoin’s long-term…
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