In his latest essay “Spirited Away,” Arthur Hayes, the former CEO of BitMEX, dives into the complexities of the global financial markets, with a focus on the impending unwinding of the dollar-yen carry trade and its impact on the crypto market.
Hayes begins by discussing the potential actions of the US Vice President Kamala Harris in response to an impending financial crisis, influenced by her need to secure electoral victory. He predicts, “Harris will instruct Yellen to use the monetary tools available to her to avert a financial crisis,” suggesting an immediate response to stabilize the markets expected “no later than the opening of Asian trading next Monday, August 12th.”
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The analysis revolves around the ‘yen carry trade,’ where Japan Inc. borrows yen at low rates to invest in higher-yielding foreign assets. This trade has been massively profitable due to the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) policies that keep yen liabilities low and asset returns high, facilitated by a weak yen. However, Hayes points out the vulnerabilities of this strategy: “If the BOJ ceases its bond purchases, the unwinding could lead to significant yen appreciation and a corresponding decline in global equity markets.”
Hayes outlines the potential dire consequences of a sudden strengthening of the yen, predicting drastic impacts on global stock markets. He quantifies these impacts, stating, “If the dollar-yen reached 100, a 38% move, the Nasdaq would drop to ~12,600 and the Nikkei to ~25,365,” indicating severe repercussions for global financial stability.
According to the former BitMEX CEO, the full unwind of the dollar-yen carry trade is a question of when, not if. “The question is when the Fed and Treasury will print money to blunt its effects on Pax Americana,” he adds and describes a scenario where the US equity markets could crash into this upcoming Friday. “Then some sort of action over the weekend is probable,” according to Hayes.
He further theorizes on a more long-term scenario: “If the yen starts to weaken again, the crisis is over in the immediate term. The unwind will continue, albeit at a slower pace. I believe the markets will throw another tantrum between September and November as the dollar-yen pair resumes its death march toward 100. There will definitely be a response this time around, as the US presidential election will be weeks or days away.”
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Hayes…
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