Glassnode Suggests Bitcoin Long-Term Holder Conviction Not Lost Yet

Data from Glassnode suggests Bitcoin long-term holder capitulation hasn’t reached a scale that would imply a widespread loss of conviction yet.

Bitcoin Long-Term Holder Supply Has Declined By 61.5k BTC Since 6 Nov

According to the latest weekly report from Glassnode, the BTC long-term holder supply has observed a notable decrease recently.

The “long-term holders” (LTHs) make up a cohort that includes all Bitcoin investors who have been holding onto their coins since at least 155 days ago.

Holders belonging to this group are statistically the least likely to sell at any point, so movements from them can have noticeable implications for the market.

The “long-term holder supply” is an indicator that measures the total number of coins currently stored in the wallets of these resolute investors.

Changes in the value of this metric can tell us whether the LTHs are accumulating or selling at the moment.

Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Bitcoin LTH supply over the last few years:

Looks like the value of the metric has decreased in the last few days | Source: Glassnode's The Week Onchain - Week 46, 2022

As you can see in the above graph, the Bitcoin LTH supply had been riding a constant uptrend for many months before last week, and set new all-time highs.

This means that the market had been continuously accumulating the crypto as the bear market went on.

However, since the 6th of November (when the crash triggered by the FTX collapse began), the indicator has sharply declined, suggesting that LTHs have participated in some selling.

In total, the decline has amounted to around 61.5k BTC exiting the wallets of the LTHs in this period so far.

The chart also includes the data for the 7-day changes in this Bitcoin indicator, and it seems like the metric has a negative value of 48.1k right now.

This value isn’t negligible, but as is apparent from the graph, this red spike isn’t on the level of the ones observed during the previous selloffs.

The report notes that this could imply there hasn’t been a widespread loss of conviction among Bitcoin’s most resolute holders yet.

Nonetheless, it remains to be seen where the metric goes from here. “Should this develop into a sustained LTH-supply decline however, it may suggest otherwise,” cautions Glassnode.