“FTX Might Have Provided Massive Bailout For Alameda In Q2”

Did this Coin Metrics analyst uncover the key to the whole Alameda/ FTX story? Because let’s face it, it doesn’t make sense. Both of Sam Bankman-Fried’s businesses were extremely profitable. FTX was the world’s third-biggest exchange and growing, why would anyone risk killing that golden goose? There must have been an underlying cause. Did this Coin Metrics analyst uncover it in the on-chain data? He might have.

The Head of R&D at Coin Metrics, Lucas Nuzzi, ends his thread with a warning: “Important to note that this is my own personal highly-speculative take on what happened based on these on-chain artifacts.” The case the Coin Metrics analyst is making rests on solid on-chain data, but the interpretation of what said data means is “highly-speculative.” So, take it with a grain of salt and don’t go around saying this is exactly what happened, because it might not be. 

That being said, yikes! 

The Coin Metrics Analyst Makes The Case

Lucas Nuzzi starts with a statement of fact, “I found evidence that FTX might have provided a massive bailout for Alameda in Q2 which now came back to haunt them.” And then, he poses a mystery. “40 days ago, 173 million FTT tokens worth over 4B USD became active on-chain.” Where did those tokens go? You guessed it, Alameda Research. The day was September 28th. A record-breaking $8.6B in FTT moved that day.

2/ That day, September 28, over 8.6 Billion USD worth of FTT was moved on-chain.

That was by far the largest daily move of FTT in the token’s existence and one of the largest ERC20 daily moves we ever recorded at Coin Metrics. pic.twitter.com/GnUO1ZcCB7

— Lucas Nuzzi (@LucasNuzzi) November 8, 2022

“That was by far the largest daily move of FTT in the token’s existence and one of the largest ERC20 daily moves we ever recorded at Coin Metrics,” Nuzzi tweeted. What was happening around Alameda and FTX near that time? Nothing special, really.

• On August 24th, Sam Trabucco stepped down from the Co-CEO position at Alameda Research. “I will stay on as an advisor, but otherwise will not continue to have a strong day-to-day presence at the company,” Trabucco tweeted.
• On September 27th, Brett Harrison stepped down from the CEO position at FTX. “Over the next few months I’ll be transferring my responsibilities and moving into an advisory role at the company,” Harrison tweeted.
• This one is the kicker. On September 28th, Sam Bankman-Fried tweeted, “Heads…