The Bureau of Economic Analysis is set to release the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) index for October, a crucial inflation indicator closely monitored by the Federal Reserve, at 8:30 a.m. ET Thursday.
The PCE index stands out as the Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge of inflation because it offers a more comprehensive assessment of price changes for a broad range of goods and services compared to the popular Consumer Price Index (CPI) basket.
According to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool, investors are currently pricing in a 78% probability of a rate increase by May 2024. Additionally, there is speculation that up to five rate cuts could occur by December 2024, with a 56% probability.
October PCE Report: What Are Economists Expecting?
Economists’ forecasts for the October PCE report are as follows:
The headline PCE price index is expected to decrease from September’s year-on-year increase of 3.4% to 3% year-on-year in October.
The headline PCE price index is projected to show a month-over-month increase of 0.1%, a slowdown from the previous month’s 0.4% rise.
The core PCE price index, which excludes energy and food prices, is forecasted to ease from 3.7% year-on-year to a 3.5% year-on-year increase in October.
The monthly increase in the core PCE price index is expected to accelerate slightly from 0.3% to 0.2%.
5 ETFs to Watch
Thursday will also mark the last trading day of the month, making it an important time to assess the performance of various Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs). Here are some ETFs to keep an eye on:
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:TLT): This ETF gained 10.8% this month, on track for its strongest monthly performance since September 2011.
Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:QQQ): This ETF rose by 11% this month, marking its strongest monthly return since July 2022. It is trading just 4.5% below its all-time highs, indicating strong investor confidence in the tech-heavy index.
SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:GLD): This ETF saw a 3% increase this month, extending its gains from a 7.4% surge in October. It is on track for a record-high close, reflecting continued interest in gold as a hedge against inflation and economic uncertainty.
Cathie Wood’s ARK Innovation ETF (NYSE:ARKK): ARKK experienced an impressive 33% rise in November, marking its strongest monthly…
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