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An emerging set of on-chain and market structure signals suggests Dogecoin could be coiling for a fresh advance, according to analytics platform Alphractal, which published a new chart pack and methodology notes on X on August 21. The firm argues that miner resilience, a stable “Network Stress Index,” and model-derived bands such as Alpha Price and CVDD have lined up in a way that historically preceded major DOGE trend accelerations.
$1 Dogecoin Back In Play?
“Dogecoin’s miners remain incredibly resilient, with hash rate activity pushing toward record highs,” Alphractal wrote, before posing the core question animating its latest study: “Could trading around True Market Mean Price and models like Alpha Price and CVDD pave the way for a potential new all-time high in DOGE?”
At the foundation of the call is a composite gauge the firm calls the Network Stress Index. It blends three dimensions of chain health and pressure—“Fee Stress (fees / market cap – 40% weight), Hash Stress (30-day hash rate volatility – 30% weight), [and] Supply Stress (7-day active supply volatility – 30% weight).”
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As Alphractal summarizes the read-through: “Higher values suggest potential instability or major transitions. Lower values reflect a balanced network across economic, security, and activity dimensions.” In the current regime, the firm says the indicator “signals stability — showing no warning signs of network risk.”
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