Bitcoin (BTC) could be on the verge of entering a new round of price movement, according to Matt Hougan, the chief investment officer of crypto index fund manager Bitwise.
Hougan says he’s paying attention to a couple of metrics related to Bitcoin options and the newly approved spot BTC exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
He’s particularly interested in looking at net flows into newly approved funds versus Grayscale’s Bitcoin Trust (GBTC).
“Things I’m watching:
- Net flows in ETFs (New ETFs vs. GBTC)
- Annualized Basis on Binance
- BTC options skew
The big options and futures expiration on Friday could be a capstone to this round of price movement, as people unwind their pre-ETF bets.”
Bitcoin is trading at $39,698 at time of writing. The top-ranked crypto asset by market cap is down nearly 7% in the past week.
Hougan goes on to say that BTC’s recent losses are not the result of an ETF-led sell-off.
“The ETFs are net buyers of Bitcoin (GBTC included).
This is an ETF expectations-led sell-off. The market front-ran the ETF approval by piling into to both spot Bitcoin and Bitcoin derivatives. It expected larger net flows into ETFs than we’ve gotten so far, and is now unwinding that bet.
[In my opinion,] just as the market overestimated the short-term impact of ETFs, it is underestimating the long-term impact.”
Hougan clarifies that GBTC is a net seller, but the new ETFs as a whole are net buyers.
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