The monetary policy of the Federal Reserve (FED) continues to be the all-determining factor for both the financial markets worldwide and Bitcoin. With this in mind, all eyes are currently on November 02, when the next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is scheduled.
However, while this is an external market risk, there is also an internal market risk currently developing that should not be underestimated from a historical perspective: a Bitcoin miner capitulation event.
The lower Bitcoin falls and the longer the price stays at the current level, the more pressure is put on Bitcoin miners’ margins by a divergence of price and hash rate.
Bitcoin’s Mining Difficulty Reaches A New ATH
A look at the Bitcoin mining difficulty adjustment that took place yesterday shows that it increased again by 3.44%. This follows the historical adjustment of October 10, when the mining difficulty increased by 13.55%.
#Bitcoin mining difficulty has just increased by +3.44%, making another new all time high as hash rate continues to soar.
Miners are relentless. pic.twitter.com/4GEyHxYoZ8
— Dylan LeClair 🟠 (@DylanLeClair_) October 24, 2022
The difficulty is updated approximately every two weeks to account for the fluctuating hash power on the network and to ensure a minting of new Bitcoins approximately every 10 minutes (block time).
Yesterday’s adjustment is thus likely to put further pressure on already struggling miners who are seeing dwindling profits. Will Clemente, co-founder of Reflexivity Research, asserted that “miners are the biggest intra-Bitcoin market risk right now IMO”.
A compelling theory for the steady rise in the hash rate, he says, is that a well-funded player is trying to squeeze out inefficient miners and acquire their assets on the cheap, “Rockefeller-style”.
As a result, miner capitulation could occur. During this event, the non-profitable miners would have to sell both their mining hardware and their holdings of Bitcoins. On a large scale, this could trigger a significant selling pressure on the Bitcoin price, as seen with past miner capitulations.
Clemente stated that the likelihood of a second miner capitulation after the first period in June is rising. The leading indicator to watch are the hash ribbons.
Clemente concluded:
Thinking about who this entity(s) is that feels that it’s advantageous to mine with…
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