In an interview with Mario Nawfal, Jan van Eck, CEO of $118 billion global asset manager VanEck, offered an analysis of Bitcoin’s potential trajectory, the US fiscal deficit, and the broader financial markets. Contrary to some hyper-bullish forecasts, van Eck provided a more conservative price target for Bitcoin for this bull run.
Van Eck stated, “Our thesis is effectively that Bitcoin will keep to the halving cycle, so we’re looking at sort of $150,000 to $180,000 this cycle as a price target.” He dismissed the notion that Bitcoin could reach $400,000 in the current cycle, suggesting that such a milestone might be achieved in the next cycle. “In the next cycle, it reaches my target of half the value of gold, so $400,000 plus depending on the price of gold,” he added.
Discussing the US fiscal deficit, van Eck identified it as “the elephant in the room” and a significant concern for the markets. “We are spending money that’s just completely unsustainable, and for any other country, they’d be headed towards bankruptcy,” he remarked.
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He outlined two prevailing schools of thought in Washington regarding fiscal policy. The first is the lobbyist perspective, which asserts that it’s impossible to cut spending significantly, resulting in minimal slowing of growth in the budget deficit. The second is the “extreme disruptors” approach, advocating for a $500 billion cut in government spending.
Van Eck credited this figure to Vivek Ramaswamy, co-head of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), stating, “They can effectuate that because there are 1,200 programs that are no longer authorized but still spending money, which means that they can terminate them with an executive order.” He described this target as “healthy” and “realistic,” although acknowledging it would not close the entire deficit, which was $1.8 trillion last year.
Addressing the market’s reaction to the election of President Trump, van Eck found it peculiar that despite a clear electoral outcome, there remains uncertainty about fiscal policy. “We had a sweep by one political party, yet we don’t really know what their fiscal policy is gonna be,” he observed.
He noted that the initial market reaction was negative for gold because of the possibility of government restructuring. “The initial reaction was negative gold because the…
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