In a forecast shared via a YouTube video, Joe Burnett, Senior Product Marketing Manager at Unchained Capital, articulates a strong case for Bitcoin reaching a valuation of $750,000. According to Burnett, the market may be substantially underestimating Bitcoin’s potential this cycle, often losing sight of its broader context within the global financial ecosystem.
Why Bitcoin Could Soar To $750,000
Burnett begins by addressing a common oversight in market analysis, which typically juxtaposes Bitcoin’s current cycle against historical performances without accounting for its evolving market context. “I think it’s possible that many people are underestimating Bitcoin this cycle,” Burnett stated, emphasizing the necessity to perceive Bitcoin through the lens of its relative position in the total global wealth.
A key component of Burnett’s argument is the HODL model created by the Rational Root, which he discussed extensively on the podcast “What Bitcoin Did.” The model pinpoints a critical inflection in 2020, coinciding with Bitcoin’s third halving—an event that reduces the number of new bitcoins generated and thus awarded to miners for verifying transactions.
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Burnett elucidates, “This model is fascinating because it shows a logical inflection point that occurred in 2020 around the third halving. It highlights that illiquid supply as a percentage of total supply held at an all-time low percentage, and it’s been slowly climbing ever since.” According to him, this reflects a shift towards Bitcoin being increasingly held by long-term holders rather than circulated by miners and speculators.
Post-2020, Burnett argues, Bitcoin has entered a new phase characterized by a diminishing supply of liquid coins. “Until the third halving, Bitcoin was really just in the process of distributing coins via proof of work mining; almost 90% of all coins were mined by 2020,” he explains. The subsequent reduction in new coin generation post-halving has spurred a gradual transition from a freely circulating supply to a more tightly held asset.
Burnett’s forecast also leverages a comparative analysis with gold, traditionally viewed as a robust store of value. He challenges this notion by highlighting the flaws in gold’s economic mechanics, particularly its annual supply increase of 1% to 2% which introduces continuous sell pressure. “Gold has a negative feedback loop considering it’s not perfectly scarce…
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