Bitcoin price has never lost more than 10% in July — Is 2023 different?

Bitcoin (BTC) gained 12% in June, but one forecast sees the good times soon fading for bulls.

In a tweet on July 1, popular trader CryptoBullet admitted that July might not offer much more BTC price upside.

Trader: BTC price rally “likely” ending this month

Despite a last-minute dive, thanks to a macro news event, Bitcoin managed to close out the month of June in a solid position.

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro, TradingView and CoinGlass confirms that the monthly close came in at $30,465 on Bitstamp.

Those levels continue to hold into the weekend, with the past month marking Bitcoin’s best June performance since 2019.

By historical standards, July looks even better; throughout its history, BTC price action has never lost more than 10% during the month.

For CryptoBullet, however, “common sense” dictates that BTC/USD should fall below some key moving averages.

“So, June surprised me. We got a pretty bullish monthly close: BTC tested the the MA50, bounced strongly and managed to regain the EMA21 !” he commented on the monthly chart.

“I can repeat what I said: $BTC can go to 35k (to hunt liquidity), but this mid term bullish rally is coming to an end. Likely this month.”

The concept of liquidity hunting in the low $30,000 zone remains popular as a theory for price continuation.

Among those tracking it is trading suite DecenTrader, which this week underscored the leveraged short positions stacked toward $35,000.

This ties in nicely with the massive chunk of #Bitcoin Liquidity, which is loaded all the way above $35k.

If we see cascading short liquidations, wicking all the way up to the Moonraker resistance at $37k could be reasonable. https://t.co/JR4J24Ak8H pic.twitter.com/3CEJQ9bvOI

— Decentrader (@decentrader) June 28, 2023

Battle of the monthly Bitcoin charts

Elsewhere, a broadly optimistic Rekt Capital was keen for what he called a “healthy technical retest” of levels below $30,000 for Bitcoin, despite the monthly close.

Related: Bitcoin speculators send 35K BTC to exchanges in new ‘elation inflow’

“BTC has performed a bullish Monthly close but is primed for a healthy technical retest at ~$29250,” he told Twitter followers on the day.

“With price currently around $30500… I wonder what negative catalyst will soon emerge to facilitate this technical retest.”

Further analysis…