Bitcoin (BTC) has a chance to end 2023 at $35,000 despite heading lower in between, veteran analyst Filbfilb believes.
In his latest interview with Cointelegraph, the co-founder of trading suite Decentrader reveals some BTC price targets that should resonate with the long-term holder base.
Bitcoin faces multiple obstacles to its current uptrend, and the current cycle offers various key differences to those that came before it. It is not just the Bitcoin spot price exchange-traded fund (ETF) debacle; the entire macroeconomic environment looks markedly different to just a few years ago.
Filbfilb predicts that the April 2024 block subsidy halving will nonetheless have a cathartic effect on BTC price performance. BTC/USD could even trade as high as $46,000 by that time, but losses are “likely” to come next.
Filbfilb eyes “likely” BTC price dip to low $20,000 range
Cointelegraph (CT): On short timeframes, you recently predicted another BTC price dip to “crush the remaining hopium.” Where do you see the long-term floor?
Filbfilb (FF): This depends on circumstances; as we saw during the COVID-19 crash in March 2020, the floor was slightly north of $3,000, so I would expect the lows of around $16,000 seen following the FTX crash to be maintained. However, avoiding a black swan event, somewhere in the low $20,000s seems likely.
CT: Do you still expect a reversal in price behavior in Q4 as miners and smart “buy the rumor” on the halving?
FF: Based on the previous cycles we have seen a contraction of new emitted supply to market in advance of the halving. Coupled by increased speculative demand, this dynamic is likely to repeat in my opinion.
CT: Speaking of miners, what’s your stance on price versus hash rate, considering how the latter continues to see new highs?
FF: I’ve not been able to attribute a direct correlation between hash rate and price.
CT: What’s surprised you about BTC price action this year compared to other pre-halving years?
FF: There has been a failure to break the 100-week moving average thus far which is a notable difference. In the past, this has confirmed the bull market to some extent. Timing wise, the uptick from the 2022 lows is in line with what we have seen previously.
CT: A lot has been made about the outcome of the Grayscale vs. SEC lawsuit last week — how significant do you think the news really is? Do you see a U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF approval on the horizon?
FF: The SEC seemingly has a policy of “delay at all costs,”…
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