Bitcoin on track for longest flat market in halving year history

Bitcoin (BTC) is on track to experience its longest period of sideways trading during a halving year if it doesn’t show significant upward movement within the next 14 days.

According to a dashboard shared by CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju, the longest time BTC took to rise was 298 days.

Bitcoin achieved its highest return index during a halving year in 2020, when it hit 4.05 points, while 2016 marked the worst halving year in terms of returns, with the index only reaching 2.26 points.

Despite being the second-best performing year, 2012 registered the strongest start after 298 days, achieving 2.06 points in the return index.

Longest re-accumulation range of all-time

This year also witnessed a major milestone as Bitcoin reached a new all-time high before the halving for the first time in its 15-year history.

Based on historical data, Bitcoin hit new all-time highs roughly 240 days after a halving event over the past four cycles. However, this trend was broken this year when the BTC price peaked at $73,737.94 on March 14, essentially accelerating the post-halving bull run by 260 days.

However, the multiple corrections registered since the halving have lowered the acceleration rate to 60 days, according to an analyst and trader known as RektCapital.

The analyst further suggested that Bitcoin is showing behavior that indicates the market is trying to reduce this acceleration period.

Additionally, the historical “re-accumulation period” seen after each Bitcoin halving — when the price trades sideways before a parabolic upward movement — is already the longest since 2016.

While it took 161 days after the halving for Bitcoin to begin its all-time high climb in 2016, it took 164 days in 2020. As of Oct. 11, Bitcoin has been trading sideways for 176 days.

Since Bitcoin is already overdue to break out of the re-accumulation range between the $71,000 and $60,000 price zones, Rekt Capital predicted that the sideways period could continue for another two months. This would allow enough time to reduce the acceleration rate to zero.

That would take the re-accumulation range to 236 days, making it the longest of all time during a halving year.

Mentioned in this article