Maksim Balashevich, CEO of crypto analytics firm Santiment, believes Bitcoin’s market conditions post-halving suggest a period of ongoing redistribution followed by a potential resumption of the bull trend. In a recent report, Balashevich and his team analyzed on-chain data to uncover nuanced behavioral patterns among market participants.
“The present and the future,” Balashevich stated in the report, is “a mix of news” for Bitcoin. He pointed to the Network Realized Profit/Loss (NRPL) metric, which “reveals patterns similar to those observed during the peak periods of 2013, 2017, and 2021.” Specifically, there appears to be a reluctance to realize profits, a trend evident in Santiment’s latest charts.
While some might view this as a sign of strong hands, Balashevich cautioned that “these ‘strong hands’ could become shaky ones” and potentially “mark the bottom once panic sets in.” However, he also noted a more positive indicator in the Mean Dollar Invested Age (MDIA) metric, suggesting that the market has been undergoing active redistribution for about 4-5 months.
“This suggests that the market may be gearing up to resume the bull trend, potentially leading to further redistribution over the typical 12-month cycle observed in past years,” Balashevich explained. As for who has been buying lately, Santiment’s supply distribution data reveals that predominantly smaller holders have been accumulating while whales remain stable.
Mid-sized holders, often called “sharks,” are declining their BTC balances, “maybe in favour of memecoins,” Balashevich quipped. He described the current setup as “where one would be warned to be cautious at least.”
Looking ahead, the Santiment CEO emphasized that the future outlook for Bitcoin varies “widely depending on your overall investment strategy, portfolio size, and risk tolerance.” Rather than focusing solely on predictions, he encourages investors to “ask the right questions.”
“The data, combined with your observations and analysis, will guide you to the answers best suited to your situation,” Balashevich advised. By examining historical trends and current metrics like NRPL, MDIA, and supply distribution, Santiment’s research aims to provide a comprehensive view of the complex market forces at play in Bitcoin’s post-halving environment.
While the future remains uncertain, Santiment’s analysis suggests that Bitcoin may be poised for further redistribution and
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