Bitcoin remains trapped in a tight consolidation range that began over two weeks ago, fueling expectations of an imminent breakout or breakdown. The lack of decisive movement has created a state of market indecision, with neither bulls nor bears taking full control. Price continues to hover between key support and resistance levels, showing no strong signs of accumulation or distribution.
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According to new data from CryptoQuant, the Bitcoin Heat Macro Phase—a metric that reflects the overall temperature of the market—currently sits at a neutral level. This indicates that market conditions are balanced, with no clear dominance from buyers or sellers. Profit-taking remains moderate, ETF inflows have slowed, and long-term holder activity is stable, all of which support the view that the market is in a wait-and-see mode.
The current structure suggests that a major move is likely approaching. With volatility compressed and the market treading water, traders and investors are closely watching for a signal that will define the next leg. Whether Bitcoin breaks out toward new highs or rolls over into a correction, the coming days will be crucial in shaping the short-term trend and broader sentiment across the crypto landscape.
Bitcoin Heat Macro Phase Signals Neutral Market
Top analyst Axel Adler recently shared insights into the Bitcoin Heat Macro Phase—a metric that condenses several key market indicators into a single scalar value, offering a simplified yet powerful view of where Bitcoin stands in its broader macro cycle. The metric combines data points such as overvaluation assessments, profit-taking activity, long-term holder (LTH) selling pressure, and ETF inflows to gauge whether the market is overheated or entering a favorable accumulation zone.
When the Heat Macro Phase reaches high values near 50%, it typically signals that these components are at their upper historical bounds—suggesting an overheated market that may be nearing a distribution phase or a correction. Conversely, readings closer to 30% reflect cooler market conditions: lower profit-taking, modest ETF activity, and minimal LTH selling. These scenarios often indicate that the market is undervalued and ripe for accumulation.
Currently, the Bitcoin Heat Macro Phase sits at 44%, putting it squarely in the neutral zone. Adler explains that this level reflects a balanced market environment—neither overbought nor undervalued. There’s no clear dominance by bulls or…
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