Bitcoin (BTC) traders are currently not pleased with the recent price trends, especially due to the inability of its price to surpass the $30,500 mark over the last four weeks. This frustration is compounded by the fact that several requests for spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are either being delayed or pending review from regulators.
Interestingly, there has been a noticeable uptick in the open interest of Bitcoin’s futures contracts, which likely indicates increased demand from institutional traders. On the other hand, activity in the derivatives markets has been lackluster. This contrast in market dynamics has led to a mixed sentiment among investors, making it challenging to gather enough momentum for trading at or above the $31,000 level.
The main factor cited by many analysts for the lack of buyers driving Bitcoin above the $30,000 mark is the reports surrounding the United States Department of Justice considering fraud charges against Binance. Additionally, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) currently have their own legal actions against the exchange and its founder, Changpeng “CZ” Zhao.
Macroeconomic forces partially explain Bitcoin investors’ discomfort
Taking a broader view of the situation, there is an added concern regarding the potential global economic recession triggered by the efforts of central banks to control inflation. The most recent U.S. core Consumer Price Inflation (CPI) figures, which exclude food and gas prices, saw a 4.7% rise compared to the previous year, following a 4.6% increase in June. This data supports the ongoing initiatives to tighten the economy, favoring investments in fixed income, short-term bonds and cash positions.
As a result, despite the consensus projecting the Federal Reserve to maintain the interest rate cap at 5.5% during the upcoming September meeting, investors lack the motivation to increase their positions in risk-on markets. This reluctance stems from the growing likelihood of a recession, evident through the 1.4% decline in Eurozone retail sales year-over-year in June and the U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI registering at 46.4 in July, which indicates a state of contraction.
When examining the price as an indicator, it becomes apparent that Bitcoin investors are currently not displaying significant confidence in the likelihood of a near-term approval for a spot ETF. At the…
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