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Last Friday’s US July Employment Situation release has delivered the kind of statistical jolt that rarely shows up outside crises, forcing traders to re-evaluate both the macro outlook and Bitcoin’s near-term path. Payrolls grew by just 73,000, but the shock lay in the record-large negative revisions: May and June were marked down by a combined 258,000 jobs, slicing the three-month hiring average to 35,000 and erasing nearly all of the second-quarter’s reported momentum. The Bureau of Labor Statistics notes that revisions of that magnitude have been seen only during the Covid collapse.
Is Bitcoin Really Facing A Black Swan Event?
Bloomberg Economics chief US economist Anna Wong wrote: “The downward revisions to May and June payrolls in the July jobs report constitute a black swan event – a three-standard-deviation move with less than a 0.2% chance of occurrence in the last 30 years. Adjusted for our estimate of the job overstatement from the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ birth-death model, the three-month hiring pace turns outright negative.” The data, she wrote in a terminal note circulated Friday, “flipped the labor-market script” from re-acceleration to abrupt cooling.
Related Reading: Bitcoin Could See Another Crash To Fill This Imbalance Before Rally To $120,000
The market’s crypto voice on the issue has been Bitwise Europe’s head of research, André Dragosch, who spent the morning posting a string of warnings on X. First came the news, ”According to Bloomberg chief economist Anna Wong, the…
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