Bitcoin ‘death cross’ data hints 43% drop due in BTC price bear market

Bitcoin (BTC) may fall more than 40% from last week’s bottom, new data warns as one analyst confronts what he says is now a bear market.

In a series of tweets on May 20, popular trader and analyst Rekt Capital argued that BTC/USD should dive to near $20,000 to conform to historical norms.

Death cross BTC price target now $22,700

Much debate has surrounded the so-called “death cross” constructions on the Bitcoin chart. These involve the declining 50-period moving average (50MA) crossing under the 200MA.

Often in the past, such an event has triggered considerable price downside, this then going on to mark what Rekt Capital calls “generational bottoms.”

“More often than not, the depth of a $BTC correction pre-Death Cross is similar to retrace depth post-Death Cross,” he summarized.

Both March 2020 and May 2021 broke the rules when it comes to post-death cross losses, however — in both instances, the death cross, itself, marked the bottom.

In January 2022, the historical trend seemed to return, as a death cross event came after BTC/USD had already declined 43% from its November 2021 all-time highs of $69,000. 

Another 43% from there, however, puts the pair at $22,700.

20.

So since #BTC has crashed -43% since November ’21 prior to the Death Cross…$BTC could retrace a bit more to reach an overall retracement of -43% post-Death Cross, should this historical tendency continue to repeat

This would result in a ~$22,700 $BTC#Crypto #Bitcoin pic.twitter.com/aH91tn2xmr

— Rekt Capital (@rektcapital) May 20, 2022

“What’s interesting about the scenario of a -43% post-Death Cross crash however is that it would result in a $22000 BTC,” the concluding tweet read, alongside a chart highlighting key return on investment (ROI) opportunities during generational bottoms.

“Which ties in with the 200-SMA (orange), which tends to offer fantastic opportunities with outsized ROI for $BTC investors (green circles highlight this).”