In the latest episode of The Milk Road Show, Charles Edwards, founder of crypto hedge fund Capriole Investments, provided an in-depth analysis of Bitcoin’s current state, its future trajectory, and the potential conclusion of the traditional 4-year Bitcoin cycle.
Edwards posits that Bitcoin’s journey to $100,000 could be the catalyst for an unprecedented price acceleration. He suggests that once this psychological and technical barrier is breached, Bitcoin could potentially double in value within weeks. Drawing parallels with gold’s recent performance, Edwards stated, “If you look at gold this year, it went up 33% in 16 weeks—that’s a $3.8 trillion move in a really old asset. For Bitcoin to go from $100K to $200K, that’s just $2 trillion on an asset that trades 24/7 and is more accessible globally.”
He emphasizes that Bitcoin’s relatively smaller market capitalization compared to gold allows for more rapid price movements. Historically, after surpassing previous all-time highs, Bitcoin has experienced significant and swift appreciations, entering periods of price discovery where supply constraints can lead to vertical price increases.
When Will Bitcoin Price Double?
The $100,000 mark is not just a round number; it represents a significant resistance level due to several factors. Edwards highlighted the presence of a substantial sell wall at this price point, noting, “We have the biggest sell wall we’ve ever seen in the order books for Bitcoin at $100,00. I think just yeah once that’s cleared out, that’s when you know everyone who wanted to sell has sold and you have these really sharp rapid vertical price appreciation moves because there’s just no more supply left.”
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Additionally, many investors who entered the market at lower prices may view $100,000 as an optimal point to realize profits, potentially creating selling pressure. However, Edwards remains optimistic that this barrier will be surpassed, especially within the next few months, given the seasonal strength observed in Bitcoin’s price movements during Q4 and Q1.
“We are [at a point] in the cycle where we are seasonal and this is kind of like the optimal two to four month period, […] maybe a five to six month period every four years. After each Halving every four years, you have about 12 to 18 months where you get 90% to 95% of all the cycles…
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