Financial markets are a rollercoaster of
uncertainty and unpredictability. Warren Buffett once said: “The only value of
stock forecasters is to make fortune-tellers look good.” Crypto is like that,
but on steroids. No wonder, then, that every once in a while, we see the
emergence of an event that market thought leaders define as a “decisive
moment.” Just like the gods of war and prosperity in ancient mythologies,
people seek reasoning for past events, predictions for what’s about to come,
and most importantly, a playbook for ensuring a better future.
A
New Tenant on Mount Olympus
The Bitcoin maximalists can tell you all
about the magical forces of the Bitcoin halving. Much virtual ink has been
spilled to explain the cycles before, during, and after the halving, in a
desperate attempt to make sense of the insensible pricing of this asset.
In the past few months, a new magical event
has emerged in the Bitcoiner (and degen) jargon, the Bitcoin ETF. Now, the
halving can share crypto’s Mount Olympus with a new colleague.
Since the news that institutional giants
like BlackRock and Fidelity are pursuing SEC approval for a Bitcoin ETF,
Bitcoiners have been infused with optimism. News site headlines and TV talking
heads have competed over who could give a higher forecast on what such an
approval would do to BTC’s price (and consequently, the prices of other
tokens), $100K, $500K, you name it. Others have fantasized about the prospect
of government and institutional recognition, and subsequently, mainstream
adoption.
HISTORY IS RUNNING IN REVERSEThe Bitcoin ETF is the spiritual reversal of Executive Order 6102. Back in 1935, they seized the gold. But now, digital gold is back.Ninety years ago, FDR and his fellow travelers rode the 20th century arc of centralization. The chokepoints of… pic.twitter.com/oZ7I8q1sQZ
— Balaji (@balajis) January 11, 2024
ETF
– Extreme Teasing Farce?
This week’s debacle regarding the SEC’s
fake tweet about a blanket approval of all 11 Bitcoin ETF requests was a comic
moment for outsiders and an emotional rollercoaster for the traders. The crypto
feed celebrated the occasion with memes and “ratioing” Gensler’s clarification
tweet, dubbing this event as “teasing.”
But, this was a climax and anti-climax
packed into a few short minutes. With the BTC price jumping by $1,000 (just
before crashing below the pre-fake-announcement moment) and the crypto feed
exploding with joy (just before turning into a huge…
