This is the weirdest bear market to date. It seems like most people were prepared for it, even though the death spirals and Chapter 11 bankruptcies that started it came out of nowhere. In any case, every coin is in the red. The market should be in a state of fear, uncertainty, and doubt. That is certainly not the case for the two leading cryptocurrencies. The circumstances might be different for each one, but both markets show signs of unwavering conviction.
Long-time holders of bitcoin and ethereum seem to be laughing in the bear market ’s face. In the latest edition of The Wolf Den, the author uses Glassnode and Intotheblock’s data to show us how this is true.
The Bear Market Vs. Bitcoin
“On-chain evidence from Glassnode suggests that there has been no meaningful reduction in the conviction of long term believers,” the newsletter states. To prove this, The Wolf Den looks at the “Dormancy Metric.” The number that “tracks the average age of every Bitcoin that moves, determined by when it was mined. One of the ways to gauge the sentiment of long-term holders is to asses the average age of coins moving around the market.”
As attentive readers might suspect, the coins that are “moving around the market” are extremely young. In fact, their age “is at multi-year lows. The dormancy value is very low.” This is consistent with previous bear markets, in which dormancy values tend to be low. The newsletter quotes analysis from Glassnode:
“The decline in lifespan metrics actually bodes well for the longer-term, as it indicates old coins are stationary, and declining prices have little psychological impact on this cohort’s conviction.”
So, if we focus on the big picture, everything looks like it’s supposed to. A healthy habit during bear markets.
BTC price chart for 09/02/2022 on Cexio | Source: BTC/USD on TradingView.com
The Ethereum Merge Is Upon Us
For this section, The Wolf Den used data from IntoTheBlock. Before getting into it, the author clarified the sequence of events that compose the mythical “merge”. First of all, on September 6th, “the Bellatrix upgrade happens on the Beacon chain”. Then, between September 10th and 20th, “the official transition from Proof-of-Work (PoW) to Proof-of-Stake (PoS) will occur”. The Ethereum Foundation estimates that the merge will happen on September 15th.
To evaluate the Ethereum network’s state during this bear market, The Wolf Den looked into “netflows onto…
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