Recent global birth rate data, if extrapolated to the end of this century, suggest that the number of people on the planet celebrating the turn of 2100 could be half of that which saw in the millennium.
Data collected by HSBC Global Research show that the global birth rate has fallen by 4.5% in 2023. South Korea’s rate has fallen by the most, down 8.5%, while Germany’s was down 6%. In the U.S. the birth rate is still growing, but at a much slower rate since the global financial crisis in 2008.
“The aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic was expected to see a rebound in birth rates across the world – but the opposite is happening,” said James Pomeroy, global economist at HSBC Global Research.
Social And Economic Impact On Young People
The reasons appear to be a mixture of many reasons, both economic and social. Young people struggle to afford homes in which to raise families, as well as the broader costs of bringing up children. Meanwhile, many younger people are prioritizing their careers or desire to travel ahead of starting families.
Much of this means that those who do plan families are having children at a much later stage in their lives than would have been the norm several decades ago. Thus, many are limiting their families to just one child.
“As things stand, we’re on a path of the world’s population to start shrinking before 2040, with developed markets already on a path to dramatic population decline over the course of the next few decades,” said Pomeroy.
Also Read: As China’s Population Declines In 2023, Will Aging Demographics Boost Healthcare Stocks?
Good News, And Bad News
For many, this would be good news. Fewer people on the planet take pressure off the earth’s resources. But less demand for damaging fossil fuels, would see oil prices turn materially lower.
And it’s been demand economics that have driven oil prices for the past six months or so. The price of the United States Oil Fund (NYSE:USO), an exchange-traded fund based on the price of light-sweet crude, has fallen 17% since it last peaked in September.
And this has come amid numerous supply threats including wars and shipping attacks in and around the oil-producing areas of the Middle East.
Falling birth rates present policy and lawmakers with difficult economic decisions to make. How do governments…
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