BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes believes Bitcoin’s (BTC) bull market will reignite after one event plays out.
Hayes tells his 395,700 followers on the social media platform X that the Federal Reserve will likely start printing money again, which will send Bitcoin soaring.
One signal that the Fed will need to pivot and prop up the US economy is a troubling pattern forming in the bond market, according to Hayes.
He says long-term bond interest rates are rising faster than short-term bond interest rates, a phenomenon known as the “bear steepener.” This yield curve pattern is often a bearish signal for stocks and risk assets.
“The faster this bear steepener rises, the faster someone goes belly up, the faster everyone recognizes there is no way out other than money printing to save government bond markets, the faster we get back to the crypto bull market. The Lord is my Shepherd, I shall not want.”
According to Hayes, the rising 2s30s curve – which is the difference between the 30-year yield and the 2-year yield – and Federal Reserve’s hawkishness are leading to an inflection point in the US economy.
“Due to the leverage and non-linear risks embedded in banks’ portfolios, they will be selling bonds or paying fixed on IRS as rates rise. More selling, begets more selling, which is no bueno for bond prices.”
The Federal Reserve began a series of interest rate hikes in March 2022, which decreased the liquidity in the financial markets, hurting risk-on assets like Bitcoin.
Bitcoin is trading for $27,483 at time of writing, up 0.2% in the last 24 hours.
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