The Bitcoin price is currently in an uncertain situation. After BTC broke below the one-month trading range between $29.800 and $31.500, the bulls have so far failed to recapture this area. A first attempt failed on Wednesday at $29.725, a second effort on Thursday at $29.600.
On the other hand, the bears currently also fail to push the price below the critical support at $29.000. In which direction the next movement will go is, as always, pure speculation, but data can give indications.
Bullish Signal 1: Decreasing BTC Supply On Exchanges
Renowned crypto analyst Ali Martinez shared an intriguing bullish chart, revealing that only 2.25 million BTC are currently held in known crypto exchange wallets. This is the lowest Bitcoin supply on trading platforms since January 2018.
The data suggests that investors and long-term holders are refraining from selling and are instead choosing to keep their BTC off exchanges. This “hodling” behavior indicates a positive sentiment BTC holders.
Bullish Signal 2: Lack Of Inflows From Bitcoin Whales
Head of Research at CryptoQuant, Julio Moreno, pointed out another bullish sign when he shared a chart showing a lack of inflows from large investors with 1,000 to 10,000 BTC (aka Bitcoin whales) into exchanges. Moreno stated, “”Not really seeing Bitcoin whale inflows into exchanges.”
Additionally, the same trend is observed among smaller investors, indicating a reluctance to deposit BTC into centralized exchanges. Commenting on the exchange deposit transactions (7-day SMA) chart, Moreno added, “indeed, seems nobody wants to deposit into centralized exchanges.”
Such behavior suggests that significant holders and institutions are holding onto their BTC assets, potentially anticipating future price increases.
Bearish Signal: Short-Term Holder (STH) MVRV Metric
On-chain analyst Axel Adler Jr. addressed the short-term holder (STH) MVRV metric, saying: “STH MVRV is actively falling and we may see something similar to what happened in the two previous corrections.” The chart shown by Adler reveals that the STH MVRV fell either close to 0 or even below during the lows of the sharp Bitcoin price corrections in mid-March and mid-June.
Currently, the STH MVRV is still somewhat elevated, so a last pullback in the Bitcoin price triggered by short term holder selling may be necessary for the MVRV to reset to 0.
Adler…
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