The adoption of Bitcoin (BTC) could occur more rapidly than the adoption of past disruptive technologies such as automobiles and electric power, with global take-up likely to hit 10% by 2030 according to a new report.
In its Wednesday report, Blockware Intelligence said it arrived at this forecast by examining historical adoption curves for nine past disruptive technologies including automobiles, electric power, smartphones, the internet and social media, along with the growth rate of Bitcoin adoption since 2009:
“All disruptive technologies follow a similar exponential S-curve pattern, but […] newer network-based technologies continue to be adopted much faster than the market expects.”
Using the average and weighted average of historical technology adoption curves, as well as the growth rate of Bitcoin adoption, the report was then able to arrive at its prediction.
It said that based on a metric called Cumulative Sum of Net Entities Growth and Bitcoin’s predicted “CAGR of 60% we forecast that global Bitcoin adoption will break past 10% in the year 2030.”
Blockware Intelligence is the research arm of Blockware Solutions, a Bitcoin mining and blockchain infrastructure company, so you might expect it to be bullish on adoption.
The intelligence unit said it expects Bitcoin adoption to reach saturation quicker than many other disruptive technologies, given direct monetary incentives to adopt, the current macro-environment and because adoption growth will be accelerated by the internet.
“From a consumer perspective, past technologies had convenience/efficiency-related incentives to adopt them: adopting automobiles allowed you to zoom past the horse and buggy, adopting the cell phone allowed you to make calls without being tied to a landline,” the report explains:
“With Bitcoin direct financially incentivized adoption creates a game theory in which everyone’s best response is to adopt Bitcoin.”
Bitcoin, like the internet, smartphones, and social media, also derives benefits the more people that adopt the technology, which is known as the “network effect.”
“Case in point if you were the only user on Twitter would it be of any value? It would not. More users make these technologies more valuable.”
Related: 75% of retailers eyeing crypto payments within 24 months: Deloitte
However, the authors of the Blockware report stressed that the model used to predict the rate of adoption was only conceptual at this stage, adding it is neither meant to…
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