Bitcoin (BTC) price gained 6.1% between Nov. 28 and Nov. 30 after briefly testing the $17,000 support. Favorable regulatory winds might have helped fuel the rally after the Binance exchange announced the acquisition of a regulated crypto exchange in Japan on Nov. 30.
Binance shut its operations in Japan in 2018 after being warned by the Japan Financial Services Agency for operating without a license. The acquisition of Sakura Exchange BitCoin would mark the re-entry of Binance in the Japanese market.
Furthermore, Gemini exchange announced new regulatory approvals in Italy and Greece on Nov. 30. The exchange was granted registration as a virtual currency operator with Italy’s payments services regulator. Gemini was approved as an exchange and custodial wallet provider in Greece.
However, not everything has been positive on the regulatory front. In separate letters from Nov. 28, Ron Wyden, chair of the United States Senate Finance Committee, requested information from six cryptocurrency exchanges. The lawmaker targeted the necessity of “consumer protections along the lines of the assurances that have long existed for customers of banks, credit unions and securities brokers.”
Wyden requested the six firms provide answers by Dec. 12 on safeguards of consumer assets and market manipulation. The Senate Agriculture Committee has also scheduled a hearing to explore the collapse of FTX on Dec. 1.
During these events, Bitcoin has been trying to break above $17,000 for the past eighteen days, so some selling pressure clearly remains above that level.
The most likely culprit is the risk of capitulation from Bitcoin miners after they’ve seen their profits squeezed by falling spot prices and surging Bitcoin mining difficulty. Cointelegraph noted that Bitcoin miners face a significant squeeze after expecting to sell accumulated BTC at a profit.
Let’s look at crypto derivatives data to understand whether investors remain risk-averse to Bitcoin.
Futures markets are no longer in backwardation
Fixed-month futures contracts usually trade at a slight premium to regular spot markets because sellers demand more money to withhold settlement for longer. Technically known as contango, this situation is not exclusive to crypto assets.
In healthy markets, futures should trade at a 4% to 8% annualized premium, which is enough to compensate for the risks plus the cost of capital.
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