Sina—a professor, consultant, and co-founder & COO of 21stCapital.com—is projecting that the Bitcoin price could rise as high as $285,000 by the end of 2025 in a new analysis shared on X. Utilizing a quantile regression model, Sina identifies distinct phases in Bitcoin’s market cycle.
Can Bitcoin Price Skyrocket Above $200,000?
The model identifies the Cold Zone (accumulate.”
The Warm Zone (33-66%), spanning from $85,000 to $136,000, marks a period where the market gains momentum, and mainstream attention intensifies. During this phase, rapid price growth is expected as the “train leaves the station.” Sina recommends a standard accumulation strategy here, such as dollar-cost averaging (DCA), to steadily increase holdings.
Related Reading
The most critical phase, the Hot Zone (>66%), ranges from $136,000 to $285,000. This zone is characterized by heightened volatility and significant price swings as mass adoption peaks and leveraged positions become prevalent.
While there is substantial room for upside, the risk of reversals escalates rapidly. Sina advises investors to either hold and enjoy potential gains or consider gradually exiting positions based on risk assessments, particularly since historical tops occur in the 90th to 99th quantile range. Notably, the 90th quantile starts at $211,000.
What astonishes Sina is how these 33% quantile ranges align seamlessly with Bitcoin’s historical phase transitions. He notes that Bitcoin tends to spend exactly one-third of its time in each zone before transitioning to the next, almost like clockwork. This pattern means that most of the bear market occurs below the 33% quantile, while bull market euphoria begins above the 66% quantile.
Renowned crypto analyst PlanC (@TheRealPlanC) acknowledged Sina’s model, commenting that it is a “perfect explanation—super clear.” Sina, in turn, credited PlanC for the foundational work that influenced his own model.
Related Reading
PlanC has also recently updated his “Power Law Probability Model,” which forecasts Bitcoin prices ranging from $189,733 to $245,264 for the 97% to 99.9% quantile and $145,182 to $189,733 for the 90% to 97% quantile. He emphasizes that despite appearances, the underlying data follows a power-law relationship, independent of how it’s plotted—be it linear, log-linear, or log-log…
Click Here to Read the Full Original Article at NewsBTC…
