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Power Law predicts Bitcoin block rewards to hit $5.5 million within 10 years

Power Law predicts Bitcoin block rewards to hit $5.5 million within 10 years


Bitcoin block rewards will likely evolve significantly over the coming decade, driven by substantial shifts in Bitcoin prices and fee changes. One popular model for projecting future prices is the Power Law, coined by Giovanni Santostasi. Based on this model, CryptoSlate has calculated the Bitcoin block reward over the next ten years.

The Power Law Model predicts Bitcoin trading within a set range, illustrated on the left of the table below by the upper and lower bound prices, with the regression fit aligning with a ‘fair price.’ The right-hand columns show the Bitcoin block reward based on these prices, considering future Bitcoin halvings.

Year Upper Bound Price ($) Fair Price ($) Lower Bound Price ($) Block Reward Upper ($) Block Reward Fair ($) Block Reward Lower ($)
2024 274,548 69,100 24,517 857,965 215,903 76,617
2025 379,955 100,805 35,767 1,187,362 315,017 111,772
2026 515,561 143,725 50,995 1,611,130 449,143 159,362
2027 684,305 199,734 70,868 2,138,456 624,170 221,464
2028 897,270 273,663 97,099 1,401,985 427,598 151,718
2029 1,163,524 370,148 131,333 1,818,008 578,357 205,209
2030 1,491,596 494,028 175,287 2,330,620 771,920 273,887
2031 1,884,046 648,109 229,958 2,943,823 1,012,671 359,310
2032 2,369,328 845,919 300,143 3,702,076 1,321,749 468,974
2033 2,901,380 1,070,486 379,822 4,533,406 1,672,634 593,473
2034 3,579,973 1,366,669 484,912 5,593,709 2,135,421 757,676

Note that these figures do not account for fees paid to miners or changes in either the hash rate or Bitcoin difficulty. An increase or decrease in fees would directly alter the overall block reward, whereas changes in the hash rate and difficulty will make it harder or easier to mine Bitcoin, affecting the cost to mine Bitcoin.

The projections indicate a steady rise in the potential price of Bitcoin, with the upper bound price expected to increase from $274,548 in 2024 to $3,579,973 by 2034. Based on these price estimates, the corresponding block rewards suggest that miners could see their potential rewards at the upper bound price grow from approximately $857,965 in 2024 to $5,593,709 by 2034. However, the fair and lower bound prices, which provide more conservative estimates, show a different picture, with fair price block rewards starting at $215,903 in 2024 and increasing to $2,135,421 by 2034, and lower bound price rewards growing from $76,617 to $757,676 over the same period.

These projections stress the importance of efficiency and cost management for miners. For example, after the next halving in 2028, Bitcoin rewards could fall lower than they are…

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