Bitcoin (BTC) has witnessed a significant drop, falling to $56,556 during Wednesday morning in Europe, marking the lowest point since late February. This downturn represents the sharpest monthly decline since November 2022, with BTC tumbling approximately 7.5% within the last 24 hours and breaching the previously stable $60,000 support late Tuesday.
#1 Derisking Before Today’s FOMC Meeting
Anticipation and anxiety are high in financial circles as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is set to announce its interest rate decision later today. This event is crucial as the crypto market, notably Bitcoin, has grown increasingly reactive to macroeconomic signals.
Recent data, reflecting a slowdown in GDP growth coupled with persistent inflation, has significantly reduced expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. “Bitcoin and other risk assets are currently feeling the pressure from a stagflationary environment, geopolitical tensions, and seasonal liquidity variations,” remarked Ted from TalkingMacro.
Initially, up to seven rate cuts were anticipated by the end of 2024, a sentiment that has shifted dramatically with the market now pricing in only one potential cut by December 2024. This shift comes amidst an environment where inflation data is trending upwards, challenging the Federal Reserve’s position and potentially leading to a more cautious approach from Jerome Powell, the Fed Chairman.
“For the first time in recent memory, the market is calling the Fed’s bluff, quickly front-running the idea that the Fed may not cut at all in 2024,” noted Ted.
#2 Cyclical Bitcoin Correction Phase
Following an exceptional rally since the year’s start, the market is undergoing a natural correction phase. Prior to the price crash, Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments, noted: “We are a day short of breaking the record set in 2011 for days without a meaningful dip [-25%],” emphasizing the extraordinary nature of Bitcoin’s recent performance.
Scott Melker, known as “The Wolf Of All Streets,” highlighted technical indicators that suggested an impending correction. “Broke and retested range lows as resistance. […] My biggest concern I have been discussing for months [was] that RSI never made the trip to oversold. Almost there now, all lower time frames oversold. This is still ONLY A 23% correction, very shallow for a bull market and consistent with other corrections on this run. We are…
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