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ETFs, Halving, Upgrades – What to Expect With Bitcoin Next Year

ETFs, Halving, Upgrades – What to Expect With Bitcoin Next Year

As usual, the price of Bitcoin was a big story, and in 2023 it was good news. Bitcoin is once again the best-performing asset class, beating stocks, bonds, and gold by a wide margin. As of today, the price is up more than 150% since the beginning of the year.

This post is part of CoinDesk’s “Crypto 2024” predictions package.

2023 marked a tremendous surge in institutional interest, highlighted by BlackRock’s application for an ETF in June. There are currently as many as 12 open applications, including those from Invesco, ARK, Fidelity, VanEck, and Franklin Templeton. Although the SEC refused GBTC’s application, a court ruled that the SEC’s reasoning for doing so was invalid. Even just a rumor of approval in October sent Bitcoin’s price skyrocketing.

The energy used to mine and secure Bitcoin also saw significant growth, with the mining hashrate up 100% from 240 exahash to 482 exahash year-to-date. The hashrate is the measure of how many calculations per second are required to add another block of transactions to Bitcoin’s ledger an average of once every ten minutes. Bitcoin continues to leap ahead as the most secure and reliable digital system in the world. Network uptime was 100% for the 14th straight year. 2023 also saw much more widespread recognition that Bitcoin’s relationship to energy and the environment is overwhelmingly positive, contributing to electrical grid stabilization and creating economic incentives to mitigate carbon emissions.

Looking forward to 2024, one thing that’s certain to happen is the next “halving,” when the new issuance of Bitcoin will be cut in half at block 840,000, which is expected to be mined in late April. Despite growing demand for Bitcoin, the supply added per block will nevertheless be reduced by 50%. This will be the fourth halving in Bitcoin’s history. Historically, a bull market has followed halvings. Whether causation or anomaly, it’s true until it’s not, and we plan Swan’s strategy incorporating a high probability of a bull market in 2024 and 2025.

In addition, it is almost certain that we will see the approval of one or more spot Bitcoin ETFs. This would open up floodgates of capital currently in traditional investment channels. The consensus is that this is most likely to happen in January.

Bitcoin’s technology trends in 2023…

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