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Nasdaq, S&P 500 Futures Bounce Higher As Santa Claus Rally Awaits: Analyst Says December Typically ‘Second-Half Story’

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Index futures are gaining momentum on Tuesday, signaling an acceleration upward as the “Santa Claus” rally takes hold. Adding to the positive sentiment is an early Christmas gift from the Bank of Japan, which has maintained its ultra-loose monetary policy. Traders will also be navigating through earnings reports and housing starts data as potential catalysts.

Bond yields remain subdued, and crude oil continues its fluctuating trajectory.

Highlights from Monday’s Trading:

U.S. stocks maintained mostly positive momentum, with the Nasdaq Composite and the S&P 500 Index finishing notably higher. The S&P 500 closed at its highest level since Jan. 4, 2022, and the Nasdaq Composite reached its highest point since Jan. 12, 2022.
The Dow Industrials closed flat but with a slight upward bias, achieving another record closing high. Small-cap stocks experienced some volatility during the session.
Investors, anticipating rate cuts in the new year, have seen a resurgence in risk appetite, driving increased buying interest.
Within S&P sector classes, communication services and consumer staple stocks showed significant gains, while most others traded with muted activity.

US Index Performance On Monday

Index Performance (+/-) Value
Nasdaq Composite +0.62% 14,904.81
S&P 500 Index +0.45% 4,740.56
Dow Industrials +0.00% 37,306.02
Russell 2000 -0.14% 1,982.42

Analyst Color:

December is typically a “second-half story,” said LPL Chief Technical Strategist Adam Turnquist. Since 1950, the S&P 500 has generated an average gain of 1.5% in December and finished higher 74% of the time, he said.

“Most of the gains during the month have come during the second half, as the average gain at the halfway point is only around 0.1%,” Turnquist said. This year, the index was clearly outpacing its average December progression, he noted.

“Of the six prior years when the S&P 500 had a mid-month gain of at least 3%, the index added another 1.5% in the second half of the month to finish December with an average of 5.8%,” he said.

Chart Courtesy of LPL Financial

Futures Today

Futures Performance On Tuesday

Futures Performance (+/-)
Nasdaq 100 +0.11%
S&P 500 +0.11%
Dow +0.09%
R2K +0.44%

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