If you saw the returns in my crypto portfolio this year, you would take a pass on my predictions for the direction of the cryptocurrency market. So, I will stick to what I know and share some regulatory predictions for the crypto industry.
Few legislative changes
A few minor victories will logroll small legislative fixes into “must pass” bills like the defense authorization or omnibus spending bills. The top candidate would be a de minimis exemption for smaller crypto transactions to exempt users from capital gains tax liability every time they purchase a coffee with crypto. The protection for noncustodial crypto providers in Republican Representative Tom Emmer’s bill might make it in as well. On the outside, a bipartisan stablecoin bill may be possible, though Senate Democrats are still a steep climb. But do not expect major bills — such as Lummis-Gillibrand or Boozman-Stabenow — to pass during the next Congress.
Crypto advocates in Washington have made a lot of progress this year. No one could have predicted in 2018 or even 2020 that two United States senators — Democratic Senator Kirsten Gillibrand and Republican Senator Cynthia Lummis — would appear at multiple crypto conferences in 2022 touting a bill they wrote to provide regulatory clarity.
Related: Sen. Lummis: My proposal with Sen. Gillibrand empowers the SEC to protect consumers
Bills like Lummis-Gillibrand and Boozman-Stabenow are a great start to the conversation, but tempered expectations are warranted, as neither bill will pass the next Congress. Consider the thin history of recent comprehensive financial services legislation in the United States. Since the Dodd-Frank Act of 2010 — a bill that included ideas from Democratic lawmakers floated as far back as the 1990s — no major financial services legislation has passed Congress.
Crypto advocates should continue their work but assume that barely any legislation will fit through the thin Overton window between Democratic Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown, who is flirting with banning crypto, and incoming House Majority Whip Emmer, who articulates the case for decentralized finance (DeFi) like a true crypto native.
The Securities and Exchange Commission may win some litigation
While I remain hopeful that Ripple will ultimately win its case against the Securities and Exchange Commission, the odds are against it in district court. The precedent for the test the SEC is using against Ripple, the Howey test for investment contracts, is…
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