Tuur Demeester, a Bitcoin evangelist, has recently shared his views on Bitcoin’s potential to reach the $1 million mark by 2028. Demeester’s view on this topic presents a cautious contrast to some of the more bullish predictions in the crypto community.
$1 Million Bitcoin By 2028 Is Not Certain
Demeester’s skepticism was articulated in response to a post sharing a graph by investor Fred Krueger, which suggested that Bitcoin might reach the $1,000,000 level by 2028.
While appreciating the graph’s model, Demeester expressed uncertainty, acknowledging the unpredictable nature of the market and its capacity to defy even the most well-constructed models.
Will it take BTC until after summer 2028 to reach $1M? I don’t know, but I do know that every beautiful model (as is this one 🤌) is destined to be broken by Mr. Market. https://t.co/GcmhfL2C16
— Tuur Demeester (@TuurDemeester) February 2, 2024
The anticipation surrounding BTC’s price of $1 million is closely tied to its halving events, which occur approximately every four years. After this year’s halving, the next halving is set to occur in 2028. These events reduce the number of new BTC mined per block by half, limiting the supply and potentially impacting the price.
The upcoming halving, set for April this year, will see the daily minting of Bitcoin slashed from 900 to 450 coins. Such supply changes have historically led to significant price movements, lending credibility to the various models predicting substantial future price increases.
Amid these predictions, an X user, claiming ownership of the growth plot referenced by Demeester, chimed in with insights. They argued that some market laws, like the time value of money in the stock market, are less likely to be broken.
Similarly, the natural adoption rate of Bitcoin might constrain its “explosive” growth, providing room for market movements without breaking the underlying model.
Hi Tuur, this plot is mine. Some laws are not broken by Mr Market, e.g. the stock market grows by ~7% p.a. This cannot be broken to the upside because of the time value of money (essentially).
The time-based power-law likewise is hard to break to the upside because that would go…