What happens to our assets in a stagflationary environment? Will smart money eventually move into BTC?

Inflation has become one of the most pressing global economic issues today. Rising prices have drastically reduced both the overall wealth and the purchasing power of a huge chunk of the developed world.

And while inflation certainly is one of the biggest drivers of economic crisis, a bigger danger looms around the corner — stagflation.

Stagflation and its effect on the market

First coined in 1965, the term stagflation describes an economic cycle with a persistently high inflation rate combined with high unemployment and stagnant demand in a country’s economy. The term was popularized in the 1970s as the U.S. entered into a prolonged oil crisis.

Since the 1970s, stagflation has been a repeating occurrence in the developed world. Many economists and analysts believe that the U.S. is about to enter a period of stagflation in 2022, as inflation and a rising unemployment rate become increasingly hard to tackle.

One of the ways stagflation can be measured is through real rates — interest rates adjusted for inflation. Looking at real rates shows the real yield and real returns on assets, revealing the real direction of the economy.

According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the consumer price index (CPI) recorded an inflation rate of 8.5% in July. The July CPI posted an increase of just 1.3% from its May numbers, prompting many policymakers to dismiss the severity of the current inflation rate.

However, real rates paint a much different picture.

The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield currently stands at 2.8%. With inflation at 8.5%, the real yield on owning U.S. Treasury bills is 5.7%.

As of 2021, the size of the global bond market is estimated to be around $119 trillion. According to the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association (SIFMA), around $46 trillion of that comes from the U.S. market. All of the fixed-income market SFIMA tracks, which include mortgage-backed securities (MBS), corporate bonds, municipal securities, federal agency securities, asset-backed securities (ABS), and money markets, currently have negative returns when adjusted for inflation.

The S&P 500 index also falls in the same category. The Shiller price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio puts the S&P index in the hugely overvalued category. The ratio shows the S&P index’s inflation-adjusted earnings for the previous 10 years and is used to measure the stock market’s overall performance. The current Shiller P/E ratio of 32.26 is considerably higher than the levels recorded ahead of the…