A closely followed crypto strategist is doubling down on his call that Bitcoin (BTC) will likely witness a deep corrective move this month.
In a new strategy session, analyst Benjamin Cowen tells his 786,000 YouTube subscribers that Bitcoin is likely to post negative returns in September.
“September just tends to not be a great month for crypto. Bitcoin – you can see – it averages negative in September, by a long shot, much worse than any other month.”
According to Cowen, Bitcoin could witness an over 10% drop from current levels this month.
“Given the seasonality of Bitcoin, and given the momentum, and the fact that we just had a monthly close below [$27,000], it would at least stand to reason that there’s a good chance that Bitcoin is going to go test $23,000.
Probably, I think, a good chance it’ll happen in September.”
Late last month, Cowen issued a warning that Bitcoin could drop to $23,000 in September based on historical precedence.
At time of writing, Bitcoin is trading for $25,789
Cowen also outlines a scenario where the altcoin markets in general could come back to life. According to the analyst, a confluence of macro tailwinds may give the altcoin markets a shot in the arm next year.
“Volatility normally picks back up in the halving year because it’s an election year too. And remember election years bring a lot more uncertainty.
Additionally, we are in a rate-hiking cycle which we’ve never really seen before – this aggressive. And at this rate, we likely will start to see the labor market show noticeable effects from all these interest rate hikes by the end of this year, early next year.
So if the labor market starts to show signs of weakness at the same time that inflation is coming down, because maybe we’re going into a recession, and we also have an election year where the incumbents are going to want to do what they can to try to stay in power, there’s likely going to be some political pressure to go back to some looser monetary policy. Just so that we’re not continuing to hike forever and watch all these companies go bankrupt.
So at some point in the election year, just like we saw in 2020, we’ll likely see quantitative easing return in some form. That is my guess. And when it returns, that is normally when you would expect the altcoin market to start doing well again.”
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